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New Yorkers will discover who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who governs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has threatened to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced his rival by significant margins across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby end to an race that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's power moves, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to voters' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, should the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' current model of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A NYC rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has attracted an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on targeting Mamdani directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had known him, and in truth, few even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced some challenges in recent days, after video surfaced suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd