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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly serves as a form of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the biggest resurgence receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or just the greatest surprise.

But the latest race is profoundly unique. The pool of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent conference winners declining and recent also-rans improving in unison. During an ordinary season, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and fun season, he's competing with several other exceptional candidates.

This is how the projected vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to conjure magic from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But this is not a normal season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and experience, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still