🔗 Share this article

A mere two months prior that Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as his coach admonished him over not reading a pass in behind. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were a sign or the source for the side's broader struggles.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction proved to be much more joyous. After the England international curled home his second strike to reinstate his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician discarded his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The team continued to a 10th successive win , after failing to win their opening six fixtures, find themselves just three points off pace-setters Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Legitimate Challengers?

That’s a particularly tough query to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant this season, even as the positive results have accumulated.

Per statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa registered an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a side which has put together a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear curiously susceptible – but currently the fine lines are going in their favour.

The Winning Formula

The current approach seems to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and wait for their star man to save the day with two crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and it happened against Manchester United.

Rogers' first goal came from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Is It Sustainable?

Common sense dictates no. Against United, Manchester United managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.

Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival Villa must confront as the season progresses. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing his shots into the top corner forever.

Reasons for Optimism

Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.

• Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
• The attacking talent might become the player he was during his peak.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky backline.

Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.

Enjoying the Ride

However, nobody expected this. Nobody thought the team would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, no one envisioned the young forward now would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential player for the national team.

The current run must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. When Rogers faced the home supporters after the match orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are rare in football and should be relished.